"Forecasting Snowmelt Runoff and Ice Breakup in Alaska"

Larry Rundquist
National Weather Service River Forecast Center

NOAA's NWS has been improving its hydrologic services with a program called Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS). AHPS provides new information and products provided through the infusion of new science and technology. This service improves flood warnings and water resource forecasts to meet diverse and changing customer needs. A brief overview of the AHPS program is provided. The AHPS tools are applied to the 2006 snow pack to produce probabilistic forecasts for the Chena River. A snowmelt and ice breakup outlook is provided for Alaska for the upcoming season.