Creating a Model of the Arctic System, Steps to Implementation

Larry Hinzman
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

In the last 50 years a wide range of changes in the Arctic have been documented. Many of these changes were evident since the mid-1970s; however, it is quite likely that these changes began or were initiated early in the 20th century, prior to extensive observational records in arctic regions. Regardless of the driving forces, the combined observations and documentation suggest that the arctic system may be entering a state not seen before in historic times. The complex interplay of physical, chemical, biological and social processes interact to such a degree that it is not possible to understand future trajectories without developing more fully holistic perspectives of the complete system. The components of the Arctic are inter-related through a complex network of linkages, feedbacks and multi-dependent interactions. Theoretically a change in one variable in a part of the system can initiate a cascade of effects throughout the system, and these connections need to be understood and quantified in order to achieve a level of predictability. A central objective of IARC research is to reduce uncertainty in predictions of future climate. This objective encompasses our understanding of change, attribution of change, and future rates of change. We feel that this is the only reasonable approach to predictability and will help society prepare for and adapt to ongoing environmental changes in the Arctic. This is a huge task, and we will need to work collectively and in collaboration with our international colleagues to succeed.

We at IARC would like to step into the next decade as collaborators and partners. We want to create a synthesis center at IARC, where we may serve the entire arctic research community in reaching our common goal of understanding the whole Arctic, the interactions with the more temperate regions and the external drivers. Although it is a bit overwhelming to consider attempting to develop a quantitative understanding of the whole Arctic system, we can work on distinct linkages and associated feedbacks, which will contribute to a broader understanding of the system as a whole. In a collaborative effort with arctic researchers around the world, we can achieve this level of understanding. We hope to help advance the community's understanding of the Arctic as a system by conducting international workshops, facilitating collaboration among circumpolar researchers and attempting to develop a broad confederation of collaborators. We believe we can accomplish our objective by facilitating coordination of a synthesis of arctic research activities, including a coordinated implementation of an Arctic System Model. This is not something that any single institute (or even any single nation) can accomplish. It is our hope through such cooperation and collaboration, we can achieve the level of understanding needed to be confident in our predictions of future environmental changes in arctic regions.

For more information contact: Jeff Derry (907) 322- 3026