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AWRA Alaska Northern-Region Meetings
February 11, 2009: John Walsh, Changing Seasonality: What does it mean for Alaska?, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Changing Seasonality: What does it mean for Alaska? John Walsh While climate change is generally discussed in terms of changes of averages, the timing of seasonal changes is likely to have widespread impacts on outdoor activities in northern areas such as Alaska. In this overview, we will survey evidence of recent changes in seasonal transitions characterized by various metrics. Freeze-up and break-up, growing season length, and the duration of ideal tourism weather will be used as examples. We will then examine projected changes in timing of spring and autumn transitions, with an assessment of impacts on offshore navigation, river flooding, and vegetation. Caveats associated with the projections will be addressed in terms of variance among the models from which the projections are obtained. |